According to @charliebilello, the VIX has averaged 19.1 in 2025, slightly below its historical norm, indicating that realized market stress was not extreme despite headlines, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 22, 2025. Cboe indicates the long-run VIX average is around 20, framing 19.1 as a typical risk regime rather than crisis-level volatility, source: Cboe VIX education and historical data. Because VIX reflects S&P 500 option-implied volatility, a 19 handle generally aligns with moderate index option premiums and less costly hedging than in high-vol spikes, source: Cboe VIX methodology. BIS research documents increased post-2020 equity–crypto co-movement, making equity volatility regimes relevant for BTC and ETH risk management, so a non-extreme VIX backdrop helps calibrate crypto position sizing and hedges, source: Bank for International Settlements, 2022 analysis on crypto–equity correlations.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, technology stocks' enterprise value now equals a record 62.5% of US GDP. This valuation comes amid a trade war highly focused on these technology names, leading to expectations of larger market swings. Retail traders should prepare for significant volatility in 2025, as the market dynamics evolve.